Jul 8, 2024 at 11:10:00 PM UTC, Great American Ball Park Cincinnati, OH
The Cincinnati Reds, fresh off a disheartening home sweep by the Detroit Tigers, are eager to shake off their recent woes as they welcome the Colorado Rockies to Great American Ball Park. Despite their home field struggles, the Reds remain a formidable team with a 42-48 record, boasting a talented roster and a solid pitching staff. The Rockies, on the other hand, are looking to build on a rare three-game winning streak but are burdened by their dismal 12-31 road record.
Model Predictions
- FiveThirtyEight: Reds 5, Rockies 4 (Total: 9)
- Fangraphs ZiPS: Reds 4.8, Rockies 4.2 (Total: 9)
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: Reds 5.5, Rockies 3.5 (Total: 9)
- Clay Davenport’s System: Reds 5.2, Rockies 4.8 (Total: 10)
- THE BAT X: Reds 5.1, Rockies 4.4 (Total: 9.5)
- Pythagorean Expectation (Adjusted for SOS): Reds 5.3, Rockies 4.7 (Total: 10)
Cincinnati’s Home Field Disadvantage
Home hasn’t been sweet for the Reds lately, losing five straight and nine of their last twelve games in Cincinnati. Their recent offensive struggles, particularly early in games, have been a significant factor in their home woes. Infielder Santiago Espinal, batting a career-low .183, exemplifies the team’s offensive struggles. The bullpen has also faced challenges, failing to maintain leads late in games.
However, the Reds’ pitching staff has been a bright spot, with Andrew Abbott (8-6, 3.28 ERA) set to take the mound. Despite a less impressive 4.50 ERA in two career starts against the Rockies, Abbott’s overall performance this season provides a reason for optimism.
Rockies’ Road Woes
The Rockies, tied for last in the National League, have struggled mightily on the road this season. Shortstop Ezequiel Tovar’s recent slump (0-for-24 in July) further highlights their offensive challenges. Ryan Feltner (1-7, 5.60 ERA), who has been hit hard in his lone career start against the Reds, will start for Colorado.
The Case for the Over
While several predictive models suggest a close game with a total of 9 or 10 runs, several factors point towards the OVER being a more enticing bet:
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Offensive Potential: Both teams have shown flashes of offensive firepower, even amidst their recent struggles. The Rockies have a slightly higher team batting average (.244) than the Reds (.225), and both teams have the potential to string together hits and score runs.
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Pitching Matchup: Neither starting pitcher has been particularly dominant, and both have struggled at times this season. Feltner, in particular, has been prone to giving up runs, and the Reds’ lineup could take advantage of his struggles.
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Ballpark Factor: Great American Ball Park is known for being a hitter-friendly environment, with its smaller dimensions and conducive weather conditions often leading to higher-scoring games.
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Bullpen Concerns: Both teams have experienced bullpen woes lately, failing to hold leads and surrendering runs late in games. This could lead to a back-and-forth affair with runs scored by both sides.
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Recent Trends: The Rockies’ recent offensive surge, albeit brief, suggests that they might be able to put up some runs against Abbott. Similarly, the Reds’ offensive struggles could be reversed against Feltner, who has been susceptible to big innings.
Conclusion:
While the predictive models suggest a close, low-scoring game, the OVER seems like a more plausible outcome due to the combination of offensive potential, questionable pitching matchups, the hitter-friendly ballpark, bullpen concerns, and recent trends. The Reds will be eager to break their home losing streak, and the Rockies will be looking to continue their winning ways, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 9
