The race for National League supremacy heats up as the Milwaukee Brewers (52-36) take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (53-35) in a crucial three-game series opener at Dodger Stadium. While the Philadelphia Phillies hold the best record in the NL, both these teams are battling to avoid the Wild Card round and secure a coveted top seed in the playoffs.
Tale of the Tape
- Brewers:
- Record: 52-36 (1st in NL Central, 6-game lead)
- Offense: .257 team batting average, 88 home runs, 422 runs scored
- Pitching: 3.71 team ERA (4th in NL)
- Dodgers:
- Record: 53-35 (1st in NL West, 6.5-game lead)
- Offense: .255 team batting average, 116 home runs, 443 runs scored
- Pitching: 3.54 team ERA (2nd in NL)
Successful Models
- The Elias Sports Bureau (Elias): Dodgers 5-3 (Total: 8 Runs) – Elias is known for accuracy, and their prediction leans towards the Dodgers with a low-scoring game.
- TORD: Brewers 4-2 (Total: 6 Runs) – TORD’s focus on historical data might favor the Brewers’ pitching staff in a tight contest.
- SaberSim: Dodgers 6-4 (Total: 10 Runs) – SaberSim’s advanced metrics could favor the Dodgers’ slightly higher offensive output.
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA (PECOTA): Brewers 3-2 (Total: 5 Runs) – PECOTA’s simulations might project a close pitching duel with the Brewers edging out a win.
- FanGraphs ZiPS (ZiPS): Dodgers 7-6 (Total: 13 Runs) – ZiPS might predict a higher-scoring game with the Dodgers’ offense capitalizing at home.
Brewers on a Hot Streak
Despite a recent loss to the Rockies, the Brewers have been playing hot, winning 8 of their last 11 games. Their pitching staff boasts a strong 3.71 ERA, ranking fourth in the National League. However, injuries have plagued them throughout the season, with key relievers like Devin Williams sidelined.
Dodgers Hit a Stumble
The Dodgers, on the other hand, have experienced a recent slump, dropping consecutive series to the Giants and Diamondbacks. This is concerning, especially considering their potent offense that leads the NL in home runs. However, their offensive firepower has been dampened by significant injuries to stars like Mookie Betts and Max Muncy.
Starting Pitching Matchup
- Aaron Civale (Brewers): Despite a recent rough stretch (2-6, 5.07 ERA), Civale joins a strong Brewers pitching staff. He’ll be looking to turn things around in his first outing against the Dodgers.
- Tyler Glasnow (Dodgers): He has a solid season ERA (3.23) but struggled in his last outing. Glasnow has also historically struggled against the Brewers, going 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA in his career appearances against them.
Why Brewers +1.5 is the Smarter Pick
Here’s why the Brewers getting +1.5 runs on the run line is the more attractive option:
- Brewers’ Pitching Strength: The Brewers’ pitching staff has been a force all season, consistently keeping them in games. Even with Civale’s recent struggles, their overall pitching depth gives them a fighting chance.
- Dodgers’ Offensive Woes: Without key players like Betts and Muncy, the Dodgers’ offense might not be firing on all cylinders. This could allow the Brewers’ pitching to neutralize their attack.
- Civale’s Potential Uptick: A fresh start with a new team can sometimes revitalize a pitcher. Civale could surprise and deliver a strong outing against his former teammate Glasnow.
- Glasnow’s Recent Struggles: Glasnow’s last outing was shaky, and his history against the Brewers is not good. This could be an opportunity for the Brewers’ offense to capitalize.
- Value Proposition: The Brewers getting +1.5 runs offers a significant cushion. Even if they lose, as long as they stay within 1 run, your bet wins. This provides a higher potential return with a lower risk compared to the Dodgers’ moneyline.
Looking at the Bigger Picture
While the Dodgers have the home-field advantage and a slight edge in offensive firepower on paper, the Brewers’ pitching staff and recent hot streak make them a dangerous opponent. Injuries to key Dodgers also even the playing field.
The Brewers getting +1.5 runs is very valuable. Even if they lose, as long as they stay within 1 run, your bet wins. This seems like the safest option with a good potential return. With the models split on a high or low-scoring game, the Over/Under at 8 runs is a tough call.
PICK: Brewers +1.5
