The San Francisco Giants are poised to sweep the Chicago Cubs in their four-game series at Oracle Park. Yet, despite the Giants’ recent dominance and home-field advantage, a closer look at the data suggests that the game might not be as high-scoring as some might expect.
To arrive at the most accurate prediction for the Cubs vs. Giants game, we’ll combine the insights of various prediction models, including:
- Pythagorean Expectation: (Total Runs: 7) This model uses a team’s run differential to estimate their expected winning percentage.
- Strength of Schedule (SOS): (Total Runs: 6.5) This metric accounts for the quality of opponents a team has faced.
- FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Model: (Total Runs: 7.2) This model considers team ratings and other factors to predict game outcomes.
- DRatings Inference Index: (Total Runs: 6.8) This model uses previous scores and pitcher data to estimate game results.
- EV Analytics MLB Model: (Total Runs: 7.5) This model leverages advanced analytics to provide predictions.
- Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: (Total Runs: 7.1) This model projects player performance to predict team outcomes.
Giants’ Bullpen Dominance vs. Cubs’ Offensive Woes
San Francisco’s recent success can be largely attributed to their bullpen’s exceptional performance. In the first three games of the series, the Giants’ relief pitchers have shut down the Cubs, allowing only three hits over the final 4 1/3 innings of Wednesday’s game. The bullpen has also been instrumental in key defensive plays, preventing the Cubs from extending rallies and putting runs on the board.
The Cubs, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, averaging a mere .230 batting average for the season. This offensive slump, coupled with the absence of key players due to injuries, has made it difficult for them to generate runs and compete against the Giants’ strong pitching.
Starting Pitchers: A Tale of Two Struggles
Both teams’ starting pitchers, Shota Imanaga for the Cubs and Jordan Hicks for the Giants, have recently experienced setbacks on the mound. Imanaga was roughed up for 10 runs in his last outing against the Mets, while Hicks allowed five runs in four innings against the Cardinals. This raises questions about their ability to contain the opposing offenses and keep the score low.
However, Hicks has a history of success against the Cubs, boasting a 2-1 record and a 2.88 ERA in 19 career games (18 relief appearances). If he can recapture his previous form, he could give the Giants an edge in this matchup. Imanaga, despite his recent struggles, has a respectable 7-2 record and a 2.96 ERA for the season. If he can make the necessary adjustments to his approach, he could potentially limit the Giants’ scoring opportunities.
The Case for the Under
Several factors point towards a lower-scoring game than the current over/under line of 7.5 runs suggests.
- Pitching Matchup: While both starters have had recent struggles, they both have the potential to deliver solid performances, especially considering Hicks’ past success against the Cubs.
- Bullpen Strength: The Giants’ bullpen has been a force to be reckoned with, consistently shutting down opposing offenses.
- Cubs’ Offensive Struggles: The Cubs’ low batting average and lack of offensive firepower make it difficult for them to score runs consistently.
- Recent Trends: The first three games of the series have been relatively low-scoring, with the Giants winning by one, four, and one run, respectively.
Prediction Models and Analysis
Various prediction models, including Pythagorean expectation, strength of schedule, Elo, DRatings, EV Analytics, and PECOTA, also suggest a lower-scoring game, with an average predicted total of 7.1 runs. This further supports the notion that the under 7.5 runs bet is a more likely outcome.
Conclusion
While the Giants are favored to win the game and complete the sweep, the data suggests that this may not be a high-scoring affair. The Cubs’ offensive struggles, the Giants’ dominant bullpen, and the potential for solid pitching performances from both starters all point towards a game with fewer than 7.5 runs.
Pick: Under 7.5 runs
