Tuesday, June 25, 2024, 7:10pm EST, Citi Field Flushing, NY
The first Subway Series of the 2024 season kicks off tonight at Citi Field, with the red-hot New York Mets hosting their struggling crosstown rivals, the New York Yankees. While the Mets ride a wave of momentum, the Yankees find themselves navigating a rough patch marred by injuries and inconsistent performances. This analysis delves into the key factors that could shape the outcome of this highly anticipated clash, with a particular focus on why betting the under on the total runs might be a savvy move.
Top MLB Prediction Models and Predicted Total Runs
- PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus): Total Runs: 7
- ZiPS (Fangraphs): Total Runs: 6
- FiveThirtyEight’s Model: Total Runs: 7.5
- THE BAT (Derek Carty): Total Runs: 7.6
- SportsLine Projection Model (CBS Sports): Total Runs: 7.8
- Action Network: Total Runs: 8
Mets: A Resurgent Force
The Mets have emerged as a dominant force in June, boasting a 13-6 record, a stark contrast to their dismal 9-19 showing in May. While their recent success has been overshadowed by the drama surrounding closer Edwin Diaz’s suspension for using an illegal sticky substance, the team remains confident in their ability to overcome adversity.
Offensively, the Mets have been firing on all cylinders, averaging 4.94 runs per game in June. While the loss of Starling Marte to a knee injury is a setback, the rest of the lineup has stepped up, led by Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. On the mound, David Peterson has been a reliable starter, posting a 3-0 record and a 3.97 ERA. However, the bullpen will be tested without Diaz, and the effectiveness of their replacement closer will be crucial.
Yankees: A Team in Flux
The Yankees, on the other hand, have been mired in a slump, losing their last three series and struggling to find consistency. Injuries have played a significant role in their woes, with Giancarlo Stanton being the latest casualty. His absence leaves a gaping hole in the lineup, as Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto have accounted for a disproportionate amount of the team’s offensive production.
While the Yankees still boast a potent lineup, their recent struggles against contending teams have raised questions about their ability to perform under pressure. Gerrit Cole, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, will take the mound for the Yankees. However, he is returning from injury and has only pitched four innings this season, making his performance somewhat unpredictable.
The Case for the Under
Several factors point towards a low-scoring game, making the under on the total runs (set at 8.5) an attractive betting option.
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Pitching Matchup: Both starting pitchers, Peterson and Cole, have the potential to limit runs. Peterson has been effective this season, and Cole, despite his limited innings, is a proven ace capable of dominating opposing lineups.
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Yankees’ Injury Woes: The absence of Stanton weakens the Yankees’ offense significantly. While they still have power hitters like Judge and Soto, the loss of Stanton makes them more vulnerable.
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Mets’ Bullpen Uncertainty: The Mets’ closer situation is in flux, which could create some volatility in the late innings. However, the rest of the bullpen has been solid, and they have shown an ability to close out games effectively.
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Recent Trends: Both teams have been involved in several low-scoring games recently. The Yankees have averaged 3.67 runs per game in their last three series, while the Mets have allowed an average of 3.83 runs per game in June.
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Prediction Model Consensus: Most prediction models forecast a total of around 7-8 runs, further supporting the under.
Conclusion
The Subway Series always generates excitement, and this matchup is no exception. While the Mets are riding high and the Yankees are facing adversity, both teams have the talent to win this game. However, considering the pitching matchup, injuries, recent trends, and prediction model consensus, betting the under on the total runs appears to be a wise choice.
Pick: Under 8.5
