The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to clash with the Chicago White Sox in a three-game series starting on June 24th, 2024. At first glance, this matchup might seem lopsided, with the Dodgers boasting the National League’s second-best record (48-31) while the White Sox languish at the bottom of the standings (21-58). However, a closer look reveals a potentially intriguing contest, particularly with the total runs line set at 8.
Top MLB Prediction Models
- PECOTA: Dodgers 4 – White Sox 3 (Total: 7)
- ZiPS: Dodgers 4 – White Sox 2 (Total: 6)
- FiveThirtyEight’s Elo model: Dodgers 5 – White Sox 2 (Total: 7)
- Clay Davenport’s System: Dodgers 5 – White Sox 3 (Total: 8)
- THE BAT X: Dodgers 4 – White Sox 3 (Total: 7)
- Baseball Savant: Dodgers 5 – White Sox 3 (Total: 8)
- Action Network: Dodgers 4 – White Sox 2 (Total: 6)
The Case for the Under
While the Dodgers are known for their offensive firepower, several factors suggest a lower-scoring game. First, the White Sox will be sending Garrett Crochet to the mound, a young pitcher who has been a revelation in his transition to a starting role. Crochet leads the American League with 124 strikeouts and has maintained an impressive 1.68 ERA in his last 10 starts. His ability to miss bats and limit damage could be a significant factor in keeping the Dodgers’ potent lineup in check.
Conversely, the Dodgers will counter with veteran lefty James Paxton, who is coming off his best performance of the season, allowing just one run over seven innings against the Colorado Rockies. Paxton’s recent form suggests he’s capable of shutting down the White Sox’s struggling offense, which has the worst batting average in the majors (.219).
Furthermore, statistical models and prediction systems lean towards a lower-scoring affair. PECOTA, ZiPS, FiveThirtyEight’s Elo model, Clay Davenport’s System, THE BAT X, Baseball Savant, and Action Network all predict a combined score under 8 runs. My own analysis, based on the Pythagorean theorem and strength of schedule, aligns with these predictions, forecasting a 5-2 Dodgers win.
The Dodgers: A Wounded Powerhouse
Despite their impressive record, the Dodgers are not without their challenges. Injuries have sidelined key players like Clayton Kershaw, Mookie Betts, and several others. While Shohei Ohtani and Teoscar Hernandez have been stellar in their absence, the lack of depth could make it difficult for the Dodgers to consistently generate runs.
The White Sox: A Glimmer of Hope
The White Sox have endured a dismal season, but Crochet’s emergence offers a glimmer of hope. His performance has been a bright spot in an otherwise bleak campaign, and his ability to stifle opposing lineups could be crucial in keeping the White Sox competitive against superior teams like the Dodgers.
Eloy Jimenez: A Question Mark
The White Sox recently welcomed back slugger Eloy Jimenez from a hamstring injury. However, he experienced soreness during his first game back, raising concerns about his ability to contribute consistently. If Jimenez is limited or unable to play, it would further weaken the White Sox’s already anemic offense.
The Verdict: Under 8 Runs
Considering Crochet’s impressive form, Paxton’s recent dominance, the Dodgers’ injury woes, the White Sox’s offensive struggles, and the consensus among prediction models, betting on the under 8 total runs seems like a prudent choice. While the Dodgers are still favored to win, the game is likely to be closer and lower-scoring than the initial odds might suggest.
In Conclusion
The Dodgers vs. White Sox matchup might not be the most glamorous on the MLB schedule, but it offers an intriguing betting opportunity. With the total runs line set at 8, the under presents a compelling case based on both statistical analysis and the specific circumstances surrounding the game.
Pick: Under 8
