Mets on the Move? Can They Upset the Cubs with Analytics in their Arsenal?

Let’s step into the batter’s box for tonight’s showdown between the Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets at Wrigley Field. We can analyze the matchup like a pro using a blend of advanced models, classic statistics, and on-field factors.

Clash of the Titans: Top Models’ Picks

First, we’ll consult the heavy hitters in MLB prediction. Here’s a rundown of the top 5 successful models (excluding BetQL and Sportsline for later):

1. DRatings: This model leverages historical data and incorporates starting pitchers to predict winners and runs scored.
2. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris Model: This focuses on pitching matchups and recent performance.
3. FanGraphs ZiPS Projections: This system uses complex simulations to predict wins, losses, and player performance.
4. Baseball Prospectus PECOTA: Similar to ZiPS, PECOTA utilizes projections based on a player’s past performance and adjustments for aging.
5. Vegas Odds: While not a model, oddsmakers consider a plethora of factors when setting lines.

Pythagorean Wisdom and Scheduling Woes

Next, we’ll dial back the clock to the classic Pythagorean theorem, often used in baseball. This formula estimates a team’s winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed. Let’s calculate this for both teams (assuming average runs scored and allowed hold):

• Cubs: Runs Scored (RS) = X, Runs Allowed (RA) = Y
• Mets: RS = A, RA = B

Pythagorean Win% = (RS^2) / (RS^2 + RA^2) for both teams. This will give us a baseline for their expected performance.

We can’t forget about the season’s journey. Strength of Schedule (SOS) tells us how difficult a team’s opponents have been. A team facing weaker opponents might have a better record than their true ability suggests. Let’s consider both teams’ SOS to get a clearer picture.

The Human Touch: Injuries and Trends

Now, for the human element. Injuries can significantly impact a team’s performance. We need to check for any key players sidelined, especially pitchers, as they heavily influence the game’s outcome. Additionally, looking at recent trends can reveal momentum swings. Are the Cubs riding a hot streak, or are the Mets desperate for a win?

Merging the Minds: A Consensus Approach

Finally, let’s combine all this information. We’ll take the average prediction from the top 5 models, add our own analysis using Pythagorean theorem, SOS, injuries, and trends, and compare it to the Vegas odds. This will hopefully give us a well-rounded picture.

Tonight at Wrigley: A Verdict (Without Wagering)

Based on the analysis (replace X, Y, A, and B with actual numbers):

• Models’ Average Prediction: (Insert average pick: Cubs win/Mets win/toss-up)
• Pythagorean Win%: Cubs (insert %) vs. Mets (insert %)
• Strength of Schedule: Cubs (easier/tougher) vs. Mets (easier/tougher)
• Injuries: Consider any key injuries impacting either team.
• Trends: Are either team on a hot/cold streak?

PICK: take UNDER 12 – WIN