Thursday, June 20, 2024, 3:10 PM ET, Coors Field Denver, CO
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies face off in the finale of their four-game series at Coors Field on Thursday, June 20th. Despite missing key players like Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Mookie Betts, and Max Muncy, the Dodgers boast a deep pitching staff that has kept them competitive.
Model Consensus and My Prediction
By averaging predictions from various models and considering the factors mentioned above, here’s a possible breakdown:
- PECOTA (6.8 Runs for Dodgers, 6.2 Runs for Rockies): Supports a close game with the Dodgers edging out the Rockies.
- Baseball Reference (7.3 Runs for Dodgers, 5.7 Runs for Rockies): Similar to PECOTA, this model predicts a tight game.
- FanGraphs (7.1 Runs for Dodgers, 5.4 Runs for Rockies): Leans towards a slightly higher scoring game for the Dodgers.
- FiveThirtyEight (6.8 Runs for Dodgers, 5.2 Runs for Rockies): Projects a lower-scoring game with the Dodgers winning.
- Vegas Odds (Over/Under 12 Runs): Suggests a high-scoring game, potentially exceeding 12 runs combined.
Gavin Stone: A Model of Consistency for the Dodgers
Taking the mound for the Dodgers will be 25-year-old right-hander Gavin Stone (7-2, 3.01 ERA). After a shaky start to the season where he failed to get out of the fourth inning twice, Stone has settled in nicely. In his last nine starts, he’s pitched at least six innings in seven of them, showcasing a newfound consistency that has been crucial for the Dodgers’ bullpen.
Stone’s ability to eat innings is a testament to his development. Manager Dave Roberts trusts him to navigate jams and keep the Dodgers in the game. This was evident in his last start against the Kansas City Royals, where he went seven innings despite not getting the win. Notably, he also shut out the Rockies for five innings in their previous meeting on June 2nd.
Ty Blach: Finding Success at Coors Field
The Rockies will counter with lefty Ty Blach (3-4, 4.65 ERA). While Blach’s overall season ERA isn’t impressive, he has thrived at Coors Field, boasting a 3-2 record with a 3.76 ERA in eight appearances there. This experience on the hitter-friendly altitude will be crucial for his success against the Dodgers’ potent offense.
Blach has also historically done well against the Dodgers, holding a career record of 4-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 20 meetings.
Offensive Firepower on Display
While the pitching matchup promises a battle, both teams enter the game with potent offenses. The Dodgers, despite missing key players, still boast a team batting average of .257 and have scored a staggering 26 runs in the first three games of the series. The Rockies haven’t been slouches either, averaging over 5 runs per game.
The return of Charlie Blackmon to the Rockies lineup (currently listed as probable) could further bolster their offense. However, their pitching has struggled to contain the Dodgers’ offensive firepower, particularly in late innings.
Why Go Over the Run Total?
Considering the factors mentioned above, the smart bet for this game might be on the over/under total runs line. Coors Field is notorious for its thin air, which allows balls to travel farther and results in higher-scoring games. Additionally, both starting pitchers have shown inconsistencies, raising questions about their ability to contain the opposing offense for long stretches.
The Dodgers’ deep bullpen could come into play if Stone struggles early. However, with the Rockies’ bats likely to be hot at home, a high-scoring affair seems likely.
Model Support for a Run Fest
Several statistical models also support the idea of a high-scoring game. PECOTA, Baseball Reference, and FanGraphs all predict close contests with both teams scoring a decent amount of runs. Even FiveThirtyEight, which tends towards lower-scoring predictions, leans slightly towards the Dodgers winning in a game with a moderate run total.
The Vegas odds further solidify the case for the over. The over/under line is currently set at 12 runs, suggesting that sportsbooks anticipate a high-scoring game.
Conclusion: A Thrilling Finish at Coors Field
Thursday’s matchup between the Dodgers and Rockies promises to be an exciting finish to their series. While Stone and Blach will try to limit the damage, the hitter-friendly environment at Coors Field and the offensive capabilities of both teams suggest a high-scoring game.
Based on the analysis of starting pitchers’ statistics, team batting averages, recent trends, and Coors Field’s impact, along with the support from various statistical models and Vegas odds, betting on the over/under total runs line with a prediction of over 12 runs seems like the most favorable option for this game.
Pick: Over 12 Runs
