Wednesday, June 19, 2024 at 2:20 PM ET, Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
The somber mood surrounding the San Francisco Giants extends beyond the baseball diamond. The team, still reeling from the passing of legendary player Willie Mays, heads into a series finale against the Chicago Cubs with a heavy heart. However, amidst the emotions, a crucial game with playoff implications awaits. Let’s delve into the key factors that could influence the outcome, with a specific focus on why the Giants +1.5 run spread might be the smarter wager.
Successful Models and Hypothetical Scores
- Baseball Reference Win Expectancy (BR): Cubs (60% win chance) – Implied Run Total: Cubs – 4.8, Giants – 4.2 (7 Runs)
- TORD: Cubs (58% win chance) – Implied Run Total: Cubs – 4.6, Giants – 4.4 (9 Runs)
- FanGraphs’ ZiPS: Cubs (52% win chance) – Implied Run Total: Cubs – 4.2, Giants – 4.0 (8.2 Runs)
- Vegas Odds (adjusted slightly): Cubs (-120) – Implied Win Probability: 54.5% (Similar to a 53% chance Cubs score more runs) – No direct run total implication.
Giants Batting a Tribute
Despite the emotional toll, the Giants boast a respectable offensive attack. They carry a team batting average of .247, which sits slightly above the Cubs’ .228 mark. This offensive edge could be crucial in keeping them competitive, especially against a pitcher with recent struggles like Kyle Hendricks.
Hendricks: Jekyll or Hyde?
The Cubs’ starting pitcher, Kyle Hendricks, presents a fascinating case. A World Series champion and former ERA leader, his current form is a stark contrast. Hendricks’ season record stands at a dismal 0-4 with a staggering ERA of 8.20. However, a recent relief appearance offered a glimmer of hope. He tossed 8 2/3 scoreless innings across his last three outings, showcasing potential for a turnaround.
Giants’ Pitching: A Question Mark
With the official starter for the Giants yet to be named, uncertainty clouds their pitching strategy. While Logan Webb’s performance in the previous game showcased his talent, the emotional impact of Mays’ passing remains a factor. The absence of key players like Blake Snell further complicates the picture.
Run Expectancy and Model Musings
While pinpointing the exact score is difficult, statistical models offer valuable insights. Hypothetical scores generated from models like Baseball Reference’s Win Expectancy and FanGraphs’ ZiPS suggest a close contest. The average score across these models predicts the Cubs to edge out the Giants by a narrow margin, with a combined total run expectancy hovering around 8.7 runs.
Why Giants +1.5 Makes Sense
Here’s where the run spread becomes an attractive option. Taking the Giants +1.5 provides a safety net. Even if they lose the game, as long as they stay within 1 run of the Cubs, the bet wins. This is particularly appealing considering the Giants’ offensive capabilities and Hendricks’ inconsistent form.
Emotional X-Factor
The emotional state of the Giants is an undeniable wildcard. While grief can be debilitating, it can also be a unifying force. The desire to honor Mays with a victory could provide the team with an extra edge, fueling their determination at the plate and on the mound.
Conclusion: A Heartfelt Bet?
The Giants vs Cubs matchup transcends mere statistics. The shadow of Willie Mays hangs heavy, adding an emotional layer to the competition. While the Cubs might appear slightly favored based on recent performance, the Giants’ offensive potential and the uncertainty surrounding Hendricks make the Giants +1.5 run spread an enticing option.
Pick: Giants +1.5
