Date: Wednesday, June 19, 2024
Time: 12:35 p.m. ET
Arena: PNC Park,
The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face off in the decisive game of a three-game series at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. Both teams are tied for third place in the National League Central standings, making this matchup crucial for both squads. With two impressive young starting pitchers on the mound, Hunter Greene for the Reds and Mitch Keller for the Pirates, we anticipate a tightly contested game. Here, we’ll break down each team, analyze the starting pitchers, and explain why picking under 8 total runs is a solid bet for this game.
Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds are coming into this game after evening the series with a 2-1 victory on Tuesday. Nick Lodolo’s stellar performance, pitching seven strong innings, was a key factor in their win. The Reds’ offense, although not explosive, has been consistent. Key players like Jonathan India and TJ Friedl have been contributing significantly, although their status remains uncertain due to injuries. India has a good track record against Mitch Keller, hitting .417 (5-for-12) with five walks.
Starting Pitcher: Hunter Greene
Hunter Greene, the 24-year-old right-hander, has been in excellent form recently. He boasts a 5-2 record with a 3.61 ERA this season. Greene is on a roll, winning his fifth consecutive decision last Friday against the Milwaukee Brewers, allowing two runs over five innings. Over his past nine starts, Greene has a 3.13 ERA across 54 2/3 innings, demonstrating his ability to keep opposing offenses in check. Historically, Greene has performed well against the Pirates, with a 1.99 ERA in four career starts. Notably, Jack Suwinski of the Pirates has struggled against Greene, going hitless in eight at-bats with six strikeouts.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to bounce back after a 2-1 loss on Tuesday. Ke’Bryan Hayes was a bright spot with a home run, but the team managed only four hits in the loss. The Pirates have added promising rookies Paul Skenes and Jared Jones to their rotation, bolstering their pitching depth. Bryan Reynolds has been a standout performer, extending his hitting streak to 16 games and batting .358 with two home runs and nine RBIs during this period.
Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller, the 28-year-old right-hander, will take the mound for the Pirates. Keller has been a reliable pitcher this season, with an 8-4 record and a 3.36 ERA. Although his six-start winning streak ended last Thursday against the St. Louis Cardinals, Keller posted an impressive 1.13 ERA in his previous six outings. Despite a rough outing against the Cardinals, allowing four runs on eight hits, Keller remains a formidable opponent. Jonathan India has had success against Keller, but Keller has made 45 straight starts of at least five innings, the longest active streak in the majors. His career numbers against the Reds are less impressive, with a 6.03 ERA in 14 starts, but his recent form suggests he can bounce back.
Batting Averages and Team Performance
- Cincinnati Reds: The Reds have a team batting average of .247. Their offense has been consistent, though not overpowering. Injuries to key players like TJ Friedl could impact their performance, but the team has managed to stay competitive.
- Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates have a team batting average of .243. Bryan Reynolds’ hitting streak has been a highlight, and his performance will be crucial for the Pirates in this game. Ke’Bryan Hayes’ recent home run also adds a spark to their lineup.
Additional Factors to Consider
- Injuries: The status of TJ Friedl (hamstring tightness) and Jeimer Candelario (tendinitis) will be crucial. Both players are day-to-day and their absence could impact the Reds’ offense.
- Trends: The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 8 games, but the total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 games at home. This indicates a trend towards lower-scoring games at PNC Park, which aligns with our prediction.
- Weather: Weather conditions can play a role in the game’s outcome. Currently, there are no significant weather issues expected that would impact play dramatically.
Top 5 MLB Prediction Models
- FiveThirtyEight’s Elo Model
- Total Runs: 6.1
- TeamRankings Prediction Model
- Total Runs: 6.2
- FanGraphs Projection System
- Total Runs: 7.0
- DRatings MLB Picks
- Total Runs: 8.3
- Oddsshark Computer Picks
- Total Runs: 7.9
Why Picking Under 8 Total Runs is a Better Bet
Considering the factors above, picking under 8 total runs is a prudent choice for several reasons:
- Strong Pitching Matchup: Both Hunter Greene and Mitch Keller have been in good form. Greene has a stellar 3.13 ERA over his past nine starts, while Keller had a 1.13 ERA in his six starts before his recent hiccup. Their ability to control the game and limit runs is a key factor.
- Offensive Consistency: While both teams have solid hitters, their overall offensive production has not been overwhelming. The Reds have a team batting average of .247 and the Pirates .243, indicating that while they are capable, they are not consistently high-scoring teams.
- Historical Performance: Greene’s historical performance against the Pirates, with a 1.99 ERA in four starts, suggests he can keep their offense in check. Similarly, despite Keller’s struggles against the Reds historically, his recent form suggests he can limit the Reds’ scoring.
- Injury Impact: The potential absence of key players like TJ Friedl and Jeimer Candelario for the Reds could further limit their offensive output.
Final Pick
Given the strong pitching performances expected from Hunter Greene and Mitch Keller, the consistent yet not overpowering offenses of both teams, and the trends toward lower-scoring games at PNC Park, picking under 8 total runs is a well-informed and logical bet. The analysis supports this prediction, and fans can feel encouraged that the data and trends point towards a lower-scoring game.
Enjoy the game, and here’s to a tight, well-pitched contest between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates!
PICK: under 8 total runs WIN
