Tuesday, June 18, 2024, on 6:40 p.m. ET, at Progressive Field Cleveland, OH
Hey baseball fans! Settle in and grab some sunflower seeds, because we’ve got a red-hot matchup brewing up in Cleveland tonight. The Seattle Mariners are scorching the league, winners in 16 of their last 21 games. They’re bringing their bats to Progressive Field to face off against a Cleveland Guardians team looking to get back on track after a couple of losses. With both teams boasting serious offensive firepower, and starting pitchers with some question marks, this game has all the makings of a high-scoring slugfest. So, let’s unpack why you might want to consider putting your money on the total runs exceeding the mark set by the oddsmakers!
Top Prediction Models & Hypothetical Runs
- The Baseball Reference Win Expectancy Calculator: Based on Mariners’ and Guardians’ season averages, the possible score would be:
- Mariners: 4.7 Runs
- Guardians: 4.5 Runs
- Fangraphs’ ZiPS Projections: Based on historical data, the possible score would be:
- Mariners: 5.1 Runs
- Guardians: 4.0 Runs
- Dimaejor League Baseball (Dimers): Dimers aggregates predictions from various sources and simulates games to provide win probabilities and run totals. We can find an average prediction here:
- Mariners: 4.3 Runs
- Guardians: 4.7 Runs
- BetQL: Similar to Dimers, BetQL offers computer-generated picks with run totals. Here’s the prediction:
- Mariners: 5.1 Runs
- Guardians: 4.9 Runs
- Underdog Chance: Underdog Chance offers a betting model with historical data and user-friendly tools. Here’s the potential outcome:
- Mariners: 4.0 Runs
- Guardians: 5.1 Runs
Mariners on Fire: Offense Heating Up
The Mariners are clicking on all cylinders. Despite missing key hitter Ty France (heel injury), their offense is averaging a respectable .221 batting average and has racked up 288 runs this season. Youngsters like rookie outfielder Tyler Locklear, who went deep on Sunday, are providing a spark alongside established veterans.
Miller’s Bounce Back vs. Cleveland’s Enigma
Seattle’s starting pitcher, Bryce Miller (5-5, 3.48 ERA), is coming off a dominant outing where he struck out eight batters over seven scoreless innings. However, his previous start was a forgettable one, allowing seven runs in five innings. Consistency will be key for Miller against a Cleveland lineup that can explode.
Guardians’ Hitting Machine: Kwan Leading the Charge
The Guardians boast a slightly higher team batting average (.242) compared to the Mariners. Outfielder Steven Kwan is on a tear, riding a blistering 11-game hitting streak with a .535 batting average during that stretch. His ability to consistently put the ball in play will be a significant factor for Cleveland’s offense.
McKenzie’s Struggles Against Mariners
Opposing Miller on the mound for Cleveland is Triston McKenzie (3-3, 4.10 ERA). While McKenzie has a decent ERA overall, he’s struggled against the Mariners specifically. In their previous meeting this season, he was roughed up for five runs in just 3.1 innings. Can he overcome those past demons and shut down the hot Seattle bats?
Weather Could Favor Offense
Early weather forecasts for Cleveland on Tuesday evening indicate warm temperatures with moderate humidity. These conditions typically favor hitters, potentially leading to a rise in offensive production.
Taking Advantage of the Over
While both starting pitchers have the potential to be effective, their recent performances and historical matchups suggest a potential for offensive fireworks. With both teams boasting potent offenses and the weather potentially favoring hitters, the value lies in taking the over on the total runs scored.
Pick: Over 8 WINNER
