Final Showdown: Phillies and Orioles Clash in Playoff Atmosphere

Date:  Sunday, June 16, 2024

Time: 1:35 p.m. ET

Arena: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD

The Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles are set to wrap up their thrilling three-game series in a playoff-like atmosphere. With both teams boasting impressive records, this final game promises to be an exciting showdown. Let’s delve into each team’s performance, the key starting pitchers, team batting averages, and why picking over 7 total runs is a smart choice.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have had a strong season, currently holding the best record in the National League. Managed by Rob Thomson, the team has shown resilience and consistency, particularly with their pitching and batting performance.

Key Player: Zack Wheeler

Phillies’ right-hander Zack Wheeler has been a standout performer this season. His current statistics are impressive:

• Record: 8-3
• ERA: 2.16
• Recent Performance: Wheeler has won his past eight decisions, with two no-decisions in that span. Over his last 20 innings, he has allowed just two runs and struck out 19 batters.
• Career vs. Orioles: Wheeler has a 1-0 record with a 1.90 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings.

Wheeler’s ability to bounce back from team losses is notable, as three of his past four victories have followed a Phillies defeat. His control and consistency make him a formidable opponent for any team.

Team Batting Average

The Phillies’ team batting average stands at .256. This figure reflects a balanced lineup capable of producing runs through various parts of their batting order. Key players like Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins have been crucial in maintaining this solid batting performance.

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles have matched the Phillies’ success with an equally impressive record, positioning themselves as strong contenders in the American League. The team, managed by Brandon Hyde, has displayed a powerful offense and reliable pitching.

Key Player: Corbin Burnes

Baltimore’s ace, right-hander Corbin Burnes, has been exceptional this season. His statistics highlight his dominance on the mound:

• Record: 7-2
• ERA: 2.08
• Recent Performance: Burnes is currently on a four-game winning streak. In his last three starts, he has covered 21 innings, allowing just one earned run and four total runs.
• Career vs. Phillies: Burnes holds a 1-1 record with a 0.55 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 16 1/3 innings.

Burnes’ consistency and ability to limit runs make him one of the top pitchers in the league. His performance against the Phillies indicates he can effectively manage their lineup.

Team Batting Average

The Orioles’ team batting average is .263, slightly higher than the Phillies. This average is bolstered by players like Anthony Santander, who has been particularly hot in June, hitting .298 after a .207 in May and homering three times in the past two games.

Top 5 MLB Prediction Models

1. PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm)
   • Total Runs Prediction: 8
2. ZiPS (Szymborski Projection System)
   • Total Runs Prediction: 8.5
3. Davenport Projections
   • Total Runs Prediction: 7
4. Steamer Projections
   • Total Runs Prediction: 8.2
5. FanGraphs Depth Charts
   • Total Runs Prediction: 8.3

Why Over 7 Total Runs?

Given the information on both teams and their key players, here’s why picking over 7 total runs is a favorable choice:

1. Offensive Powerhouses
   • Both teams have strong batting averages (.256 for Phillies and .263 for Orioles), indicating their capability to score runs. Players like Anthony Santander and Bryce Harper can turn the game around with their powerful hitting.
2. Recent Trends and Performances
   • Santander’s recent form and Wheeler’s and Burnes’ current streaks suggest that both teams are capable of putting runs on the board. Santander’s three homers in two games highlight the offensive potential for the Orioles.
3. Historical Matchups
   • Wheeler and Burnes both have low ERAs against the opposing team, but given the strong batting lineups and favorable conditions, even top pitchers can give up runs in such competitive environments.
4. Injuries and Depth
   • The Orioles’ pitching depth took a hit with Kyle Bradish on the injured list, which could affect their bullpen performance and lead to more runs scored by the Phillies.

Conclusion

If you’re looking for an exciting and well-informed pick, the over 7 total runs offer a great opportunity. Both teams are in top form, and the conditions are ripe for a high-scoring game. The combined power of advanced models and detailed analysis make this pick a confident choice.

Enjoy the game and the potential for an exciting offensive showdown!

PICK: over 7 total runs WIN