Thursday, June 6, 2024 at 7:10pm EDT, Great American Ball Park Cincinnati, OH
The Cincinnati Reds, fresh off a scorching road trip, return home to Great American Ball Park on Thursday to kick off a four-game series against their National League Central rivals, the Chicago Cubs. Both teams enter the matchup on winning streaks, with the Reds riding a four-game wave and the Cubs boasting two straight victories. While the offensive fireworks of the Reds’ recent surge might tempt bettors towards the Over on the 9-run total, a closer look reveals why the Under presents a more attractive option.
Top 5 MLB Prediction Models
- Dimaeon (8.7 Runs): Uses machine learning and simulates games thousands of times.
- Baseball Savant (8.2 Runs): Employs sabermetrics and advanced statistics.
- Run Blob (7.9 Runs): Leverages Bayesian statistics and historical data.
- Ft. Greene (9.1 Runs): Focuses on pitcher matchups and park factors.
- PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus) (8.4 Runs): A projection system based on historical performance and adjustments.
Average Score Prediction
Based on the above models, the average predicted total runs is 8.7 runs.
Reds on Fire: Offensive Awakening Masks Underlying Issues
The Reds have been a revelation on offense lately, scoring 44 runs in their last six games. This offensive explosion comes after a dismal May where they languished at the bottom of the majors in hitting. Key to this turnaround has been Jonathan India, who clubbed his second grand slam in two weeks during their series sweep against the Colorado Rockies. However, it’s important to remember that the Reds’ underlying hitting metrics remain mediocre. Their team batting average sits at a pedestrian .228, tied with the Cubs. This recent surge could be a blip rather than a sustained trend, especially facing a capable pitching staff like Chicago’s.
Hunter Greene: Enigma on the Mound
The Reds will hand the ball to their young ace, Hunter Greene (3-2, 3.44 ERA). Greene possesses a potent fastball, but his control can be erratic. In his last start against the Cubs, he surrendered a game-tying grand slam and ultimately took a no-decision despite striking out six batters. The Reds have yet to win a game when Greene doesn’t secure the victory, losing all seven of his no-decisions. While Greene has historically fared well against the Cubs (3-1 with a 4.33 ERA in five career starts), his inconsistency makes predicting his performance a challenge.
Cubs Look to Contain Aggressive Reds
The Cubs enter the series with their own momentum, having won their last two games in walk-off fashion. Their pitching staff will be tasked with slowing down the Reds’ aggressive baserunning attack. Cincinnati ranks second in the majors with stolen bases, led by Elly De La Cruz’s MLB-high 32 steals. However, the Cubs showed their ability to handle this strategy in the previous series, allowing only three steals while picking off three Reds baserunners. This bodes well for Chicago’s chances of containing the Reds’ offensive momentum.
Javier Assad: A Stingy Matchup for the Reds
The Cubs will counter with Javier Assad (4-1, 2.27 ERA) on the mound. Assad has been a bright spot for Chicago this season, boasting a sub-3.00 ERA. Notably, he has enjoyed success against the Reds in his career, holding a 0-1 record but a stellar 2.30 ERA in six outings, including two scoreless starts at Great American Ball Park. Assad’s ability to limit runs could prove crucial in a matchup where the Reds’ offensive output is uncertain.
Under 9 Runs the Smart Bet
While the Reds’ recent offensive surge is enticing, the matchup with a stingy pitcher like Assad and their underlying hitting struggles suggest a return to their earlier offensive woes is a possibility. Additionally, Greene’s inconsistency on the mound creates uncertainty for the Reds’ pitching. With both teams likely to prioritize pitching and defense, the Under on the 9-run total appears to be the more prudent choice. Don’t be fooled by the Reds’ hot streak; a lower-scoring game seems more likely when these two teams clash.
Pick: Under 9 Win
