Thursday, March 21, 2024 at 1:30 pm, PPG Paints Arena Pittsburgh, PA
Bluejays Set to Soar: Why Creighton is a Safe Bet to Cover Against Akron
The NCAA Tournament is finally here, and the Midwest Region kicks off with a matchup between experienced veteran Creighton and scrappy MAC champion Akron. While both teams boast talented players and hungry coaches, a closer look reveals why Creighton (-11.5) is a safer bet to cover the spread in this first-round battle.
Creighton vs Akron Prediction: Model Comparison
| Model | Predicted Winner | Spread Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| KenPom | Creighton | Likely covers (-11.5) |
| Sagarin | Creighton | Likely covers (-11.5) |
| ESPN BPI | Creighton | Likely covers (-11.5) |
| Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology | Creighton | Likely covers (-11.5) |
| FiveThirtyEight | Creighton (high win %) | Likely covers (-11.5) |
| My Prediction | Creighton | Covers by 7-10 points |
Seasoned Bluejays vs. Young Zips: Experience Matters
Creighton enters the tournament as one of the most experienced teams in the nation. Their six-man rotation features four seniors, a battle-tested junior, and a sophomore with prior tournament experience. KenPom ranks them the 8th most experienced lineup, a significant advantage against a younger Akron squad.
This experience translates to composure in high-pressure situations. Players like Trey Alexander, who has seen three Tournaments, understand the importance of taking it one game at a time and avoiding complacency. This mental toughness will be crucial against a potential Akron upset bid.
Offensive Juggernaut: The Creighton Advantage
Creighton boasts a potent offense, averaging 80.5 points per game. Leading the charge is 7-foot center Ryan Kalkbrenner, a force in the paint. He averages a dominant 17.1 points and 7.4 rebounds per game while ranking third in the nation in 2-point shooting percentage (60.6%). Akron will struggle to contain his size and skill down low.
Beyond Kalkbrenner, Creighton has a well-rounded offensive attack. Baylor Scheierman leads the team in scoring (18.4 ppg) and rebounds (9.0 rpg). Alexander, Ashworth, Miller, and Farabello all pose threats from beyond the arc, making it difficult for Akron to focus solely on Kalkbrenner.
Rebounding Prowess: Can Akron Counter Creighton’s Size?
Akron’s biggest weapon is undoubtedly Enrique Freeman, the nation’s leading rebounder (12.9 rpg). While he stands at a disadvantage compared to Kalkbrenner (6’7″ vs. 7’0″), his hustle and relentless pursuit of the boards make him a threat.
However, Creighton doesn’t rely solely on Kalkbrenner for rebounds. Scheierman and Alexander contribute significantly on the glass, averaging 9.0 and 5.3 rebounds per game respectively. This collective effort will force Akron to box out meticulously and fight for every rebound.
Coaching Savvy: McDermott vs. Groce
Both coaches have NCAA Tournament experience, but Greg McDermott of Creighton has a slight edge. He has led the Bluejays to three consecutive Tournaments with wins in each, including a Sweet Sixteen in 2021 and an Elite Eight run last year. He understands how to navigate the pressure cooker that is March Madness.
John Groce of Akron has also guided three different schools to the Tournament (Ohio, Illinois, and Akron). However, his recent trips haven’t gone far. In 2022, Akron lost to UCLA in the first round. While Groce is a proven coach, McDermott’s recent success suggests he might have a slight upper hand in this matchup.
Home Court (Dis)advantage: A Pittsburgh Neutral Zone
Akron might have a slight geographical advantage with their fans having a shorter distance to travel for the game in Pittsburgh. However, the PPG Paints Arena is a neutral site, and Creighton’s experience playing in tough Big East conference matchups might prepare them better for a hostile environment compared to Akron, who primarily competes in the MAC.
While some Akron fans might be present, it’s unlikely they will create a significant home-court advantage for the Zips.
The Verdict: Why Creighton (-11.5) is a Safe Bet
Creighton’s experience, potent offense, size advantage, and coaching edge all point towards a comfortable victory. While Akron has a tenacious rebounder in Freeman and a hungry coaching staff, overcoming Creighton’s overall talent and composure seems like a tall order.
While there’s always a chance for an upset, the weight of evidence suggests Creighton will cover the spread (-11.5) with relative ease. Their veteran leadership, offensive firepower, and defensive presence make them a formidable opponent for a young Akron team hungry to prove themselves on the national stage.
Pick: Creighton -11.5
