Picking Apart the Coyotes vs. Toreros: Betting Models and Predictions

The college basketball season is in full swing, and the clash between the South Dakota Coyotes and the San Diego Toreros promises to be an exciting one. But before you rush to place your bets, let’s dive into the numbers and make a well-informed pick. We’ll analyze top betting models, including BetQL and SportsLine, compare their predictions to my own, and factor in key player injuries, trends, and other critical elements to give you the best possible edge.

Model Mania: Aggregating Insights

1. KenPom: This widely used model favors San Diego with a predicted score of 80-70, giving them a slight edge over the Coyotes’ 77.1 expected points.
2. Haslametrics: Based on advanced offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, Haslametrics predicts a more even matchup, with San Diego taking it 77.3 to 76.2.
3. Massey: Massey Composite Index leans towards the Toreros as well, projecting a 76.6-71.3 victory.
4. BetQL: Their betting simulation model gives San Diego a 61.1% chance of winning, but surprisingly predicts a South Dakota upset with a final score of 75-74.
5. SportsLine: Their projection model aligns with the favorites, anticipating a 78-73 Torero victory.

My Take: Pythagorean, Injuries, and Trends

Based on the Pythagorean theorem, which analyzes points scored and allowed throughout the season, we get a projected score of 83.4-72.6 for San Diego. However, the absence of Dragos Lungu and PJ Hayes, two key contributors for the Toreros, throws a wrench in their offensive efficiency. Hayes, in particular, averages 12.1 points and 6.5 rebounds, making his absence significant.

Furthermore, trends suggest that South Dakota thrives as underdogs. They’re 5-4 against the spread this season, while San Diego struggles as favorites, going 5-6 ATS. Moreover, the Coyotes possess a strong offensive unit, averaging 78.2 points per game, which could challenge San Diego’s defense even with Lungu and Hayes out.

The Verdict: A Cautious Coyotes Lean

Accounting for all the factors, I see this game being closer than the models and oddsmakers predict. While San Diego remains the favorite, South Dakota’s underdog mentality, offensive prowess, and favorable no injury situation give them a fighting chance.

Therefore, my pick is a cautious lean towards the South Dakota Coyotes +8.5. Their offensive ability and underdog spirit could surprise the Toreros, especially with key players missing.

PICK: take South Dakota Coyotes +8.5

Bonus Insights: Keep an Eye On…

• South Dakota’s 3-point shooting: If they find their rhythm from downtown, they can keep pace with San Diego’s scoring.
• San Diego’s adjusted offense: Without Lungu and Hayes, how will the Toreros adapt their offensive game plan?
• Free throws: Both teams average around 75% from the charity stripe, so free throws could be a deciding factor in a close game.