Game Information:
Date: December 9, 2023
Time: 3:00 PM EST
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Spread: Army -3
Over/Under: 27.5
Setting the Stage:
The 124th edition of the Army-Navy game, one of the most storied rivalries in college football, will take place on December 9, 2023, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Both teams enter the game with 5-6 records, making the stakes even higher for bragging rights and the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy.
Injury Report:
The Black Knights are dealing with several key injuries, including offensive linemen Isaiah Alston and Kanye Udoh, defensive lineman Joshua Lingenfelter, and linebacker Alex Meredith. These absences could impact both their offensive and defensive efficiency.
The Midshipmen have a more extensive injury list, including quarterback Xavier Arline (ankle), defensive back Regis Velez, offensive lineman Colin O’Connor, and several other key contributors. Arline’s presence is especially crucial, as his mobility is a key component of Navy’s triple-option offense.
Model Predictions:
BettingPros Consensus: Army -3
ESPN FPI: Army 57.5%
CBS Sports: Army 62%
Sports Illustrated: Army 61.7%
BetQL: Army -3, Over 27.5
SportsLine: Army -3, Under 27.5
Pythagorean Theorem Prediction:
Army: 22.1 wins, 9.9 losses (based on 514 points scored, 351 points allowed)
Navy: 19.9 wins, 12.1 losses (based on 428 points scored, 432 points allowed)
Strength of Schedule:
Army: 121st
Navy: 119th
Other Factors:
Rivalry game: This is the 124th meeting between Army and Navy, one of the most storied rivalries in college football. Both teams will be highly motivated in this game.
Weather: The forecast for Foxborough on December 9 is clear skies and a temperature of 37 degrees Fahrenheit. These conditions should favor both teams’ running games.
Model Consensus:
Army: 5.5 wins
Navy: 4.5 wins
Rationale:
My prediction aligns with the majority of the models. Army has been playing better football than Navy in recent weeks. The injuries to key players on Navy’s offense could be a major factor in this game. The weather conditions should favor Army’s running game.
Prediction:
I believe Army is the better team and will win this game. I like them to cover the spread and go for the under on the total points.
Final Prediction:
Army: 24
Navy: 20
Pick: Army -3** WINNER**, Under 27.5 – **LOSS** this game landed exactly on 28 points we actually took this over at 28 by the time we got down so it wound up being a PUSH not a loss.
