2023 NFL Playoffs: 3 Reasons Bills Can Beat Dolphins in Super Wild Card Weekend

Buffalo’s postseason run begins on Sunday when it hosts the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium. The Bills entered the playoffs as his AFC’s No. 2 seed, owns his second-highest odds in the entire NFL, and ultimately won Super Bowl LVII in Arizona in February. increase. The first step in a possible march to the first title in franchise history is the AFC East rivals who split the season series.

That said, the Bills, who have 13 points in this matchup, are the clear favorites in this head-to-head and explain why they should advance to the division round.

Viewing method

date: Sunday, January 15 | time: 1:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time
position: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
tv set: CBS | stream: Paramount+ (click here)
odds: Bill -13, O/U 43.5

1. Dramatic QB mismatch

The biggest storyline coming into the game is the fact that the Dolphins don’t have Tua Tagovailoa, who has yet to be cleared by doctors to return to football after suffering another concussion. That means either Teddy Bridgewater or rookie Skyler Thompson will come into Buffalo and match Josh Allen. can also be a noble job.

When Tagovailoa exits, Miami’s ceiling drops dramatically. In games Tagovailoa has played, the Dolphins are averaging his 25.5 points per game and his 6.5 yards per play. That yardage average is the highest of any starting quarterback this season (at least 10 starts). When he’s not under center, the offense becomes a crater, averaging 16.3 points per game and just 5.2 yards per play. As we saw in Week 18, with Thompson in the starting line-up and Bridgewater backing him up, the ceiling is even lower. Thompson’s 62.2 passers his rate and his 5.1 yards are the worst among his 47 quarterbacks with 100 or more pass attempts this season.

Josh Allen, on the other hand, has total control over the Dolphins. This year, he tallied 704 yards in throwing against Miami and 124 yards in rushing, making him the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for 700 or more yards against one team during the regular season. yards and he achieved over 100 rushing yards. Allen is also his 8-2 against the Dolphins in his career, including his 5-loss record at home. His teams have averaged 32.6 points per game in these contests, with only 31 total touchdowns and he has only 7 turnovers.

When you have that level of quarterback play on one side and a potential third-string rookie starting on the other, things can get messy quickly.

2. Dolphin’s situational defense is low

In addition to questionable attacks, Miami’s defense is of concern in several key areas. Third Downs (24th) and Takeaways (T-30th) rank him in the bottom 10 in the NFL. This weekend, on three downs this season, he’ll face the Bills’ offense, which has been the best in the NFL, and, as mentioned, will rack up points on offense with Allen at center. One of his big problems for the Bills this season has been Red’s turnovers in his area, but this is a moot point against a Dolphins defense struggling to win the ball away from opponents. maybe.

Perhaps the best way to contain Allen and this Bills offense is to keep them off the field with a sustained offensive drive, but that should also include a defense coming off the field. As we’ve seen this season, that unit was barely able to do that.

One of the things this Miami defense likes to do is apply pressure. It blitzed for the second-highest rate in the NFL, but it may not fare well against Allen, who set the Bills on fire in the blitz this season.In two games, he finished 29 against the Miami Blitz. He completed 22 of the innings for 264 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions.

3. Making history at home

This is a bit more of a big picture, but still worth noting. Historically, the Bills have been strong in the postseason at home, and since the 1970 merger, he has a 12-1 record in Buffalo. In those games, the Bills are averaging 31.9 points per game while opponents are scoring just his 18.3 points per game, giving them a +13.6 average points differential. The club’s only home playoff loss came in the 1996 wild card round against the Jaguars.