2023 Baseball Hall of Fame: 7 stories to watch and predictions ahead of Tuesday’s announcement

The results of the BBWAA ballot for the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame class will be revealed on Tuesday night. It revolves around the gains made, and how Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Beltrán fought.

of View the full ballot for 2023 hereRules: Athletes are eligible to participate in voting after five years of retirement. A player who receives at least 75% of the ballots returned by his eligible BBWAA voters will be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Those who fall below 5% will not vote. 5-75% of supporters can remain on the ballot for up to 10 years. His BBWAA members who are active and in good standing and have been in it for at least 10 years can vote from 0 to 10 players for her each year.

Regardless of the BBWAA vote, there is already one new Hall of Famer in the 2023 class. It’s Fred McGriff.He Contemporary Commission votes held during the winter conference.

Here are the details for Tuesday’s selection show:

2023 Baseball Hall of Fame Classes Announced

• time: 6:00 PM ET | date: January 24 (Tue)
• tv channel: MLB Network (coverage begins at 4pm ET and lasts 4 hours)
• live stream: fuboTV (free trial)

Here are six stories to watch when the vote totals are announced Tuesday night. Note: when I mention “polling” I’m talking about Ryan Thibodaux’s vote tracker (It’s not really a vote as much as collecting ballots, but it’s the easiest way to structure it for brevity.)

1. Is this the year of Lauren?

Scott Lauren’s rise in the poll has an “if not when” feel. It’s actually more than it feels. last month, Checked recent past voting trends It shows that the chances of Lauren entering are overwhelmingly high.

However, it still matters whether it’s this year, next year, or the year after that. First of all, from a human perspective, Lauren is definitely excited to be on board, and if he misses the cut, it will be another year of waiting. As far as it goes, it’s the spots on the ballot and clearing them helps all other legitimate candidates. Remember, voters are artificially limiting themselves beyond that. More succinctly, the sooner Lauren leaves the vote, the easier it will be for all other players to benefit, including next year’s rookies like Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer and Chase Utley.

Polls show that Lauren has a good chance of reaching the requisite 75%, but a good chance of falling just a little short. Last year the voter turnout was 71% for him, but in the actual vote he was 63.2%. Now he sits at his 80% in the polls, and if there is a similar shortfall in private votes, he’s a few percentage points shy of making it.

Like I said, it will be close. This is where most of the drama takes place on Tuesday night polls.

2. Are A-Rods still low in numbers?

rod With polarizing caseWe already know that. I’m sure this is going to be a big year for the A-Rod vote. If he makes a big profit he could make a hole down the road. I have. I’ve elaborated more on the theory here.

The current numbers don’t bode well for A-Rod. Polls show he only got two votes from last year (when he was sitting by 161 votes). There’s always the chance that there’s a cache of A-Rod’s closed ballots, but there weren’t last year, and now it looks like he’s below 40% of him. In that case, it’s hard to see him laying the groundwork enough to get to his 75%.

3. How will the sign-stealing scandal affect Bertrand?

We’ve been able to get a general idea over the years about how players connecting to PED are generally treated in voting bodies. His two greats, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, never tested positive during testing, but they had a strong connection. There are players like Rafael Palmeiro and Manny Ramirez who posted uncomfortable Hall of Fame numbers but tested positive. At A-Rod, yes.

However, the comparison between this voting agency and Beltran is not well done, but it may provide a roadmap for how things may unfold going forward for Jose Altuve and others. My lengthy discussion of his affair and the issue of the sign-stealing scandal.

This probably bodes well for Beltran, as polls show him ahead of A-Rod by about 15%. Several voters wrote that they held off voting for him this year but would like to think again next year. If he gets about 50% of the vote, I presume, he’ll have a chance in the future. If he finally approaches A-Rod, we’d say early 40s, and he’s probably been around for over a decade.

Lauren’s inclusion or not, this is the storyline that grabs my attention the most on Tuesday night.

4. Helton on the move

But what if Lauren isn’t the only one with a chance to achieve it?

Last year, Helton won 52% of the vote against Lauren’s 63.2%, but Helton achieved a respectable share of the vote. He already has his 28 votes, just one vote behind Lauren with 79.4% approval. It would be an amazing leap forward, but the entire voting body seems to strongly support Helton’s candidacy.

His case is a bit polarizing, but not the reason for the scandal. He played his entire career at home to Coors Field. I looked up the problem here.

If there is a big upset on Tuesday night, it will be Helton inducted into the Hall of Fame.

5. Monitor your profits

In addition to the above, let’s pay attention to the following players.

• Billy Wagner: After rising nearly 30 points to 46.4 in the 2021 poll in two years, Wagner rose slightly to 51% in last year’s poll. Still, he got his 29 votes this voting cycle, according to the polls. This is his eighth year, and with all votes cleared from the last voting cycle, it’s a great chance to make the leap into realistic territory.
• Gary Sheffield: After a significant rise to 40.6 in 2 years in the 2021 poll, Sheffield has again stagnated at just 40.6%. This is his ninth year on the ballot, and next year he will still need a big jump to take a shot farther away, and polls show he’s had 24 votes so far, so he’s on the road. It may be progressing.
• Andrew Jones: Jones, who was just an afterthought on the ballot for the first two years, won 19.4% in 2020, 33.9% in 2021 and 41.1% last year. Now in his sixth ballot, Tracker has him an additional 22 votes. Does he look like he’s over 50 or 55 percent?If the latter, he’s on his way to final resting place.
• Bobby Abreu: Last year, it won just 8.6% of the vote, but it has garnered 11 votes in public opinion polls so far. This is my fourth attempt.
• Andy Pettit: In last year’s fourth round of voting, Pettit received 10.7% of the vote, and this time, he received 12 votes.
• Jimmy Rollins: The vote rate at the time of debut last year was 9.4%, and this time it won 3 votes.
• Mark Burley: He consistently beats the threshold on his first two attempts (5.8% last year), receiving 8 votes.

While Burley and Rollins could be barely alive, Wagner and Jones would be the big ones to watch.

6. Who will fall?

• Jeff Kent: It’s his swan song. His tenth and final year. It’s highly unlikely he’ll reach his 60% even if the poll data for the final year are up significantly.detailed here His case would probably go far better with the committee, disguising how this is a blessing to him.
• Torii Hunter: Hunters, who had just 5.3% on their first attempt last year, were barely alive. His public interest is modest enough to believe he could be below 5% of his.
• Francisco Rodriguez: It’s the first year for K-Rod and it looks like he’ll survive, but it could be very close. I think he loses some before the is revealed.
• Omar Vizquel: He has a very good chance of surviving. He voted correctly for K-Rod, but the rest of the Vizquel voters are almost all private. He won nearly 14% last year between poll tracking and actual poll results. However, he’s still dead in the water when it comes to the possibility of making a hole, but here’s his sixth attempt.
• The remaining first timers on the ballot have yet to get a public vote. Bronson Arroyo, Matt Kane, RA Dickie, Jacoby Ellsbury, André Etier, JJ Hardy, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Johnny Peralta, houston street, Jered Weaver When Jason WorthEven if some of them get one or two votes, they are all one-offs.

If we’re facing a 5% threshold, we expect Hunter to drop out while K-Rod and Vizquel survive.

The only other person on the ballot that I haven’t mentioned yet is Manny RamirezReasons vary, but it’s very likely he’s staying in No Man’s Land with Vizquel. He won his 28.9% of the vote last year and his polls show stagnation.

7. Forecast

Back November 22nd, predicted that this class would be McGriff and Lauren. I think in the committee vote he got McGriff on his one, so 2 to 2 he got his one vote right for BBWAA as well. Lauren participates and it’s from this vote.