Ranking the NHL's top 20 Calder Trophy candidates for the 2024-25 season

Welcome, for a seventh consecutive year, to The Athletic s annual look at the NHL s incoming rookie class a class which, for the upcoming season, once again looks exciting.

This season, Scott Wheeler and Harman Dayal will continue to team up for a quarterly Calder Trophy ranking beginning with this preseason look at the top rookies for 2024-25.

Advertisement Here, Dayal and Wheeler have put together a ranking of the top 20 first-year players eligible for the trophy, plus some honorable mentions.

This list differs from Wheelers twice-a-year drafted prospects rankings in that it focuses not on projecting the long-term upside of these players but entirely on predicting their rookie year results and possibilities.

While their talent remains an obvious factor, external considerations are also uniquely relevant in handicapping the Calder Trophy race.

We must carefully consider all of their coach, their potential linemates, depth charts and a players likely role and minutes to gauge their immediate potential production which, rightly or wrongly, drives awards voting and impact.

This ranking is also designed as a bit of a tutor for fantasy hockey managers, helping to fill in the gaps that Dom Luszczyszyns fantasy projections find difficult to model for new players.

Additionally, the criteria for inclusion here also differs from Wheelers personal work, which doesnt use the leagues Calder Trophys definition of a rookie.

The NHLs eligibility for rookie status says that a player cannot have played more than 25 games in any single preceding season nor in six or more games in each of any two preceding seasons and must not have attained his 26th birthday by Sept.

15 of the season in which he is eligible.

1.

Matvei Michkov , RW, 19 ( Philadelphia Flyers No.

7 in 2023) There are a lot of rookies in the NHL each season who are capable of playing their way into down-ballot consideration for the Calder (forwards who can put up 40 points, D who can put up 20-something, goalies who can backup) but there are only ever a small handful who can actually win the thing.

To win it, you need two things: opportunity high in your NHL teams lineup (top-six and PP1 as a forward, top-four minutes as a D, or a vulnerable veteran goalie in front of you) and the high-end talent to match.

Advertisement Michkov has both of those things in front of him in Philadelphia this season.

Not only is he arguably the most purely skilled rookie in the class, but the Flyers need that type of player (with all due respect to Travis Konecny , Owen Tippett , Joel Farabee and company) to juice their top six and elevate last years last-ranked power play.

If John Tortorella plays him in line with his skill level and there is an if there for a rookie whose play away from the puck can lack and with linemates reflective of his talent, I think hes got a chance to lead the Flyers in scoring.

Scott Wheeler 2.

Macklin Celebrini , C, 18 ( San Jose Sharks No.

1 in 2024) Celebrini isnt a Connor Bedard -level prospect, but hes still above average compared to past No.

1 picks.

Celebrini scored 64 points in 38 NCAA games last year, becoming the youngest player ever to win the Hobey Baker Award.

Hes a precociously advanced two-way player and physically mature, which means transitioning to the NHL at 18 shouldnt be as jarring as it was for Jack Hughes , for example.

Hell be handed the keys to a top-six center role, the first unit power play and will have at least one high-end linemate in Tyler Toffoli .

Celebrinis draft-year NCAA production was very similar to Jack Eichel and Adam Fantilli .

Eichel scored 56 points as a rookie, whereas Fantilli was pacing for 45 points last season before he got injured.

Celebrini will likely have more opportunity out of the gate than Fantilli had (Fantilli averaged under 16 minutes per game), so eclipsing 50-plus points seems like a realistic possibility.

Scoring 50-plus points as an 18-year-old rookie would be enormously impressive, but it may not be enough to guarantee a Calder Trophy victory.

Harman Dayal 3.

Logan Stankoven , C/W, 21 ( Dallas Stars No.

47 in 2021) Stankoven was one of the best players in the AHL as a rookie last season and looked like a good NHL player on a top team from his first shift with the Stars.

He still narrowly qualifies (by just one game) for Calder eligibility this year and projects to play a top-nine role in a deep Stars forward group.

He should factor in on one of the Stars two power-play units, too.

With the linemates hes likely to get and his blend of skill and effort, theres no reason he cant contribute 40-50 points in his first full season.

Thats a season that gets you on ballots.

His path to winning it would probably require an injury up front that lifts him higher in the lineup and onto PP1 to get regular minutes with the Stars stars (namely Jason Robertson , Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston ).

Hes going to have a very good rookie season though regardless, Id wager.

Scott Wheeler 4.

Cutter Gauthier, C/LW, 20 ( Anaheim Ducks No.

5 in 2022) Gauthiers decorated scoring profile at every level to this point he led the world juniors in points (tied with Jiri Kulich ), scored seven goals in 10 games for the United States at the 2023 IIHF World Championship and tallied 38 goals in 41 games for Boston College last season gives us confidence that hell jump into the NHL and make an impact.

Initially drafted No.

5 by the Flyers in 2022, Gauthier is a talented pure scorer who marries a dangerous shot with a pro-sized frame and inside, high-traffic area competitiveness.

Advertisement The fit and opportunity for him in Anaheim is strong, too: He has an excellent opportunity to slide into a top-six role immediately and his shot-first stylistic profile should mesh well with the creative, high-IQ playmaking of Leo Carlsson or Trevor Zegras .

He isnt as dynamic or purely skilled as Michkov or Celebrini, nor is he NHL-proven like Stankoven, which explains why weve ranked him below those players.

Harman Dayal 5.

Lane Hutson , LHD, 20 ( Montreal Canadiens No.

62 in 2022) We thought about slotting Hutson a spot or two higher here, but 20-year-old defensemen rarely play full seasons in the NHL and the presence of Logan Mailloux and David Reinbacher does make it feel like each of their top young defensemen may get both NHL and AHL stints at some point.

Ive never been one to bet against him and his unique talent, though.

And if Hutson plays all 82, though, hes going to run one of the power plays (Id argue it should be PP1 but Mike Matheson may get the benefit of the doubt there to start after his 62-point season last year) and play in offensive zone situations that favor his skill set.

The points will follow, as they always do for Hutson.

Theres a high ceiling for him from a production standpoint (which matters in Calder voting, rightly or wrongly) if things really click for him and he can earn Martin St.

Louis and Kent Hughes trust early on in the year.

Other considerations: If the points are there, will his defensive play also be up to snuff? And if he deals with some growing pains (no pun intended), will the points be emphatic enough to win out with voters (I think voters have often struggled with evaluating defensive play)? Scott Wheeler 6.

Dustin Wolf , G, 23 ( Calgary Flames No.

214 in 2019) After dominating the AHL for three years, and with the Jacob Markstrom trade clearing the top of the goaltending depth chart, Wolf will have every opportunity to seize a major role in Calgary.

Wolf is undersized at 6 feet but has every other trait you look for in a top goaltender hes quick, athletic, positionally sound and reads the play in front of him really well.

Hes averaged a .926 save percentage in the AHL over the last three seasons, a scintillating statistical profile that no other goalie on this list can match.

The Flames have lost a lot of pieces compared to last year and will likely defend poorly which will make it difficult for Wolf to accumulate the surface-level counting stats (namely save percentage and wins) necessary to win the Calder.

Markstrom, for example, posted outstanding numbers relative to the Flames porous defensive environment last season but only picked up 23 wins and a modest .905 save percentage.

Wolf unquestionably has the talent to break out and cement himself as a core piece of Calgarys future, but the path to garner Calder buzz likely involves him dragging the Flames into the playoffs, which is a tall order.

Harman Dayal 7.

Will Smith , C, 19 (San Jose Sharks No.

4 in 2023) Smiths going to be a fascinating case study this year.

On one hand, hes one of the most talented prospects in the sport and hes coming off a 71-point freshman year at BC.

On the other, he had a tough go at mens worlds, the Sharks are going to conceivably try two teenagers as their 1-2 centers, its always hard to get Calder love when youve got a front-runner on your team, the Sharks are going to be bad (again) and he might have a tough time with the physicality/defensive responsibilities of playing the middle in the NHL.

There are some who believe hes going to take some lumps in the NHL and spend some time in the AHL this season.

I think theres a real chance the Sharks send him to the world juniors as well.

His start to the season will be critical, because hes going to get every opportunity to succeed.

If he can find some chemistry early and get his first point and goal out of the way, hes the kind of talent who could put up points and will play PP1, which not a lot of the names below him can say.

Scott Wheeler 8.

Yaroslav Askarov , G, 22 (San Jose Sharks No.

11 in 2020) Askarov is in a similar situation as Wolf.

The 22-year-old Russians raw tools and potential are tantalizing but its going to be very challenging for him to register the type of save percentage and wins that will attract Calder attention.

The Sharks have improved considerably this offseason and should be more competitive, but they still arent going to defend tightly and are most likely destined for another bottom-five finish.

Askarov is one of the top three goaltending prospects in the world because of his power and explosiveness and hes coming off an AHL All-Star appearance.

Playing in San Jose will give him more opportunity than hed have elsewhere, but it will likely come at the expense of his surface-level statistics.

Harman Dayal Advertisement 9.

Rutger McGroarty , LW, 20 ( Pittsburgh Penguins No.

14 in 2022) McGroarty wasnt going to be on this list before the trade to Pittsburgh.

He was on campus in Michigan preparing for his junior year with the Wolverines if the Jets couldnt make a move happen.

Now, though, suddenly he looks interesting.

The expectation is that he might get a look in the Penguins top six.

Theyre thin on the wing and even if you pencil in Rickard Rakell , Bryan Rust and Michael Bunting for three of the four spots in the top six alongside Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin , theres a job to be won there and McGroarty has likely been assured an opportunity to at least compete for it in camp.

A strong camp opens the door for him to play with a Hall of Fame center and have a strong year.

Because the Penguins bottom six also lacks skill, hes probably also assured PP2 minutes to start.

I think hes up to the task of a top-nine role within their group, even if he doesnt win a top-six one.

There are some who wonder about the pace of play, but I think thats overstated.

So far, he has made it work with his well-rounded skill, work ethic and know-how.

Scott Wheeler 10.

Mavrik Bourque , C, 22 (Dallas Stars No.

30 in 2020) The Stars have knocked it out of the park with their drafting since 2017 and Bourque is shaping up like another win.

Bourque led the AHL with 77 points in 71 games last season while also claiming MVP honors.

With Joe Pavelskis retirement, Wyatt Johnston will likely shift to the wing to play on the top line with Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson.

If you assume the Stars keep their second line of Matt Duchene , Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment intact, theres an opening at third-line center for Bourque.

This would present a legitimate opportunity to produce because hed be likely flanked by Jamie Benn and Stankoven.

However, Bourques path to power-play minutes isnt guaranteed because of the Stars forward depth which hinders his odds of putting up big point totals.

Hes undersized at 5-foot-10 and isnt a blazing-fast skater either, so it may take time for his offensive skill set to translate too.

Harman Dayal 11.

Nikolai Kovalenko , LW/RW, 24 ( Colorado Avalanche No.

171 in 2018) Kovalenko doesnt have the name cachet of most on this list but he does have 304 games of KHL experience and registered 100 points in his last 113 regular season and playoff games across the past two seasons in Russia.

With Valeri Nichushkin s suspension and ongoing uncertainty about when Gabriel Landeskog will be back and what hell look like when he does return, opportunity also beckons in Colorado, where there looks like there might be an opening for Kovalenko alongside Casey Mittelstadt and Artturi Lehkonen on the Avalanches second line on opening night.

Hes got the game to be a secondary offensive player for them.

Scott Wheeler 12.

Arturs Silovs, G, 23 ( Vancouver Canucks No.

156 in 2019) Silovs was unexpectedly thrown into the pressure cooker of playoff hockey last season when Thatcher Demko and Casey DeSmith got hurt early in the first round against Nashville .

The affable 23-year-old Latvian exceeded all expectations for an inexperienced third-string goaltender: He outdueled Juuse Saros in Round 1 and kept the Canucks close against a terrifying Oilers offense in Round 2.

And now, with Demko expected to miss training camp and preseason with no timetable for return because of injury, Silovs could wind up as the Canucks No.

1 goaltender for the start of the regular season.

Silovs is exceptionally rangy and athletic, particularly from side to side.

He has struggled with tracking long-distance shots through traffic at the NHL level and his AHL results while promising (.907 save percentage last season), arent dominant.

He can make some early noise though given the potential opportunity from Demkos injury and the insulation hell presumably get from the Canucks defensive environment, which was elite last year under Rick Tocchet.

Silovs is reportedly dealing with a minor injury of his own, but it isnt expected to affect his availability for training camp Harman Dayal 13.

Maxim Tsyplakov , LW/RW, 25 ( New York Islanders undrafted) The only undrafted player on our list, Tsyplakov was one of the top European free agents last year and was recruited by several NHL teams before signing with the Islanders.

Hes a big, strong, athletic player who can hold pucks, skate, shoot it (he likes the curl-and-drag and shoots a lot), and play a direct, straight-line, attacking style that is engaged physically.

Hes not a cerebral playmaker or problem-solver type but hes expected to get a look in the Isles top nine, his game should work on North American ice/in the North American style, and his 31 goals were fourth-most in the KHL last season.

He probably doesnt get the counting stats to get onto ballots but he could score 15-20 in a best-case scenario and play on their second power-play unit.

Scott Wheeler Advertisement 14.

Justus Annunen , G, 24 (Colorado Avalanche No.

64 in 2018) Annunen is ready for full-time NHL duties after playing to a dazzling .928 save percentage in a 14-game cameo last season.

The 6-foot-4 Finnish netminder had a slow start in North America but evolved into one of the better young goaltenders in the AHL during the last two seasons.

Alexandar Georgiev s performance looms as a big wild card for Annunens usage.

Georgiev struggled to the tune of an .897 save percentage last season if he has another tough campaign, it will open the door for Annunen to handle more starts than a typical backup.

But if Georgiev bounces back and plays like he did in 2022-23, Annunen may be looking at 20 or fewer starts this season.

Harman Dayal 15.

Bradly Nadeau , LW/RW, 19 ( Carolina Hurricanes No.

30 in 2023) There are some parallels between Nadeau and Smith.

On one hand, Nadeau is also a highly skilled 19-year-old who had a very productive freshman year in college last season.

If he makes the Canes out of camp, his skill set is such that itll be with talented top-nine players and a PP2 role.

On the other, hes also eligible to play at the world juniors (for Canada, not the USA) and there are some around hockey who felt he turned pro a year too early, may have a tough go in any NHL opportunity and could end up in the AHL.

Still, hes probably the most skilled rookie at this point in the list and his talent and skating give him a slightly higher ceiling this year than the names below him, even if the likelihood of his best-case scenario may be a little lower.

Scott Wheeler 16.

Joshua Roy, LW/RW/C, 21 (Montreal Canadiens No.

150 in 2021) Roy has been on a steep uphill trajectory since being drafted in the fifth round in 2021.

He led the QMJHL in scoring in his draft-plus-one campaign, followed it up with another prolific junior season in 2022-23 and scored 32 points in 41 games as a 20-year-old first-year pro in the AHL last year.

He earned an NHL call-up in the second half and chipped in with a respectable nine points in 23 games.

He isnt the flashiest, most dynamic skater but owns a versatile set of offensive tools that allow him to make plays in high-traffic areas and around the net.

The Canadiens have plenty of forward options this season, so Roy isnt guaranteed an opportunity, but theres a path for him to carve out a third-line role with a strong camp and preseason.

Harman Dayal 17.

Josh Doan, RW, 22 (Utah HC No.

37 in 2021) Doan had a really successful first full pro season last year, leading the Tucson Roadrunners in scoring with 26 goals and 46 points in 62 games and registering nine points in his first 11 NHL games.

That NHL production isnt going to last (he shot almost 22 percent and had a PDO of 1.049 at five-on-five) but he looks pegged for a third-line and possible PP2 role in Utah and should be a solid contributor for them.

Doan plays an honest, hardworking game which will allow him to play up and down a lineup throughout his career.

Scott Wheeler 18.

Mackie Samoskevich , RW, 21 ( Florida Panthers No.

24 in 2021) Floridas top-six forward group is practically set in stone, but theres been a lot of turnover further down the lineup.

The fourth line will have a different look and theres a third line right wing vacancy next to Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen because of Vladimir Tarasenko s departure.

Samoskevich isnt guaranteed anything, but hell be one of the competitors for that third-line spot.

Samoskevich is a quick skater, boasts slick hands and has the finishing ability to potentially stick in a top-nine role.

Hes undersized and his defensive game is a work in progress, though, which hell have to work around.

He had a successful first pro campaign with 54 points in 62 AHL games last season, although there are plenty of other forwards on this list who produced at a similar if not superior rate.

Harman Dayal 19.

Fabian Lysell, RW, 21 ( Boston Bruins No.

21 in 2021) Lysell is going to make his NHL debut and play some games this year.

That you can count on.

Can the speedy winger win a job out of camp and play the full season for the Bruins? After Boston lost wingers Jake DeBrusk , Jesper Boqvist , Danton Heinen and James van Riemsdyk this summer, that door appears open as well.

Despite his status as a first-round pick, and even after two productive seasons in the AHL, hes not promised anything though, especially after the emergence of Justin Brazeau , the addition of Elias Lindholm and the signings of depth forwards like Mark Kastelic and Max Jones .

I would argue that if Lysell has a positive camp, those latter two shouldnt stand in his way of a top-12 roster spot, but his game is also such that hes not going to be a fourth-liner if he makes the team.

Hes worth following closely in camp because theres a top-nine job or two to be won there and that forward group could use his skating.

Scott Wheeler Advertisement 20.

Jesper Wallstedt, G, 21 ( Minnesota Wild No.

20 in 2021) If we were ranking the rookie goaltenders on this list based on talent and long-term potential, Wallstedt would obviously be much higher, if not No.

1.

Hes in the same tier as Askarov as one of the sports best goaltending prospects.

Wallstedts .910 save percentage in the AHL might not jump off the page, but its an impressive mark considering how awful the Iowa Wild were defensively last season.

Hes very proficient technically, relying on his positioning, big frame and calm demeanor to make difficult saves look easy.

Opportunity is the big hurdle for Wallstedts Calder chances this year.

Hes currently stuck behind Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustavsson , which means hell likely spend more time marinating in the AHL unless theres an injury.

Harman Dayal Honorable mentions (sorted alphabetically): Jackson Blake , RW, 21 (Carolina Hurricanes No.

109 in 2021) Konsta Helenius , C, 18 ( Buffalo Sabres No.

14 in 2024) Jiri Kulich, C/LW/RW, 20 (Buffalo Sabres No.

28 in 2022) Brad Lambert , C/RW, 20 (Winnipeg Jets No.

30 in 2022) Logan Mailloux, RHD, 21 (Montreal Canadiens No.

31 in 2021) Denton Mateychuk, LHD, 20 ( Columbus Blue Jackets No.

12 in 2022) Scott Morrow , RHD, 21 (Carolina Hurricanes No.

40 in 2021) Frank Nazar , C/RW, 20 ( Chicago Blackhawks No.

13 in 2022) David Reinbacher, RHD, 19 (Montreal Canadiens No.

5 in 2023) Matt Savoie , C/RW, 20 (Edmonton Oilers No.

9 in 2022) (Top photos of Macklin Celebrini and Matvei Michkov: Jeff Speer and Danny Murphy / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images).

This article has been shared from the original article on theathleticuk, here is the link to the original article:

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